What happens to Treasury bonds when interest rates rise?
When rates go up, bond prices typically go down, and when interest rates decline, bond prices typically rise. This is a fundamental principle of bond investing, which leaves investors exposed to interest rate risk—the risk that an investment's value will fluctuate due to changes in interest rates.
The higher the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the more confidence investors have in the economic outlook. But high long-term yields can also be a signal of rising inflation expectations.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
This time has been different: The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering in a range above where it was when the Fed last hiked in July 2023. We believe the historical relationship should hold and we expect the 10-year Treasury ultimately to decline modestly from current levels as growth and inflation slow.
When a Treasury bond is issued, the coupon rate stays fixed for the life of the bond, but the bond's price can change as it's traded in the market. If the bond price goes up, then its yield goes lower, even though the coupon rate remains the same.
The actual rate of interest for an I bond is calculated from the fixed rate and the inflation rate. The combined rate changes every 6 months. It can go up or down. I bonds protect you from inflation because when inflation increases, the combined rate increases.
Holding bonds vs. trading bonds
However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
You can hold Treasury bills until they mature or sell them before they mature. To sell a bill you hold in TreasuryDirect or Legacy TreasuryDirect, first transfer the bill to a bank, broker, or dealer, then ask the bank, broker, or dealer to sell the bill for you.
The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady but hints at more action this year. And a key bond yield hasn't been this high since 2007. Several factors are driving the sell-off, including stronger-than-expected economic data and the government's worsening finances.
Yields to Trend Lower
Key central bank rates and bond yields remain high globally and are likely to remain elevated well into 2024 before retreating. Further, the chance of higher policy rates from here is slim; the potential for rates to decline is much higher.
What are bonds expected to do in 2024?
Expecting another strong year in 2024
Following large front-loaded new issue supply, EM IG spreads are now at attractive levels versus U.S. credit, setting up EM debt for outperformance. Our 2024 macroeconomic base case features slowing inflation and growth cushioned by Fed rate cuts.
We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate.
These are U.S. government bonds that offer a unique combination of safety and steady income. But while they are lauded for their security and reliability, potential drawbacks such as interest rate risk, low returns and inflation risk must be carefully considered.
Interest Rate Risk
Just as prices can rise in an economy, so too can interest rates. As a result, Treasury bonds are exposed to interest rate risk. If interest rates are rising in an economy, the existing T-bond and its fixed interest rate may underperform newly issued bonds, which would pay a higher interest rate.
Compared with Treasury notes and bills, Treasury bonds usually pay the highest interest rates because investors want more money to put aside for the longer term. For the same reason, their prices, when issued, go up and down more than the others.
So, that is why bond prices fall when interest rates go up: When interest rates rise on new bonds, the older lower yield bonds have to compensate by getting cheaper. “And that's what we saw all throughout all of last year,” said Marvin Loh, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Money market funds.
- Short-term certificates of deposit.
- Series I savings bonds.
- Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS.
- Corporate bonds.
- Dividend-paying stocks.
- Preferred stocks.
Interest income, which is typically paid on a semiannual basis. Whether this income is taxable will depend on the issuer. Interest from corporate bonds is generally taxable at both the federal and state levels. Interest from Treasuries is generally taxable at the federal level, but not at the state level.
The No. 1 advantage that T-bills offer relative to other investments is the fact that there's virtually zero risk that you'll lose your initial investment. The government backs these securities so there's much less need to worry that you could lose money in the deal compared to other investments.
| SYMBOL | YIELD | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| US 7-YR | 4.654 | -0.02 |
| US 10-YR | 4.623 | -0.024 |
| US 20-YR | 4.843 | -0.028 |
| US 30-YR | 4.713 | -0.032 |
Why are high Treasury yields bad?
What it means: Higher bond yields could mean bad news for stocks: Bonds compete with stocks for investors' dollars, and when yields go up, equities often go down. That's because if bonds are yielding more than stocks, the bonds are generally more attractive. After all, Treasuries are backed by the US government.
However, CDs and Treasuries are fixed income investments and subject to similar risks as other fixed income investments. For example, if interest rates rise, the price of a CD or Treasury will fall and if you need the investment prior to maturity and have to sell it, you may lose money.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market. If your goal for investing in bonds is to reduce portfolio risk and volatility, it's best not to wait.
2 When the market consensus is that a rate increase is right around the corner, it's time to go to market. Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
