Is it better to be in bonds or cash?
Bond returns have consistently exceeded the returns of cash and cash equivalents. From 2008-2022, bonds outperformed cash by a 2.1% annual average. While 2022 was the worst-performing year in the modern history of the bond market, the year's results failed to offset the outperformance of the preceding 15 years.
Unlike holding cash, investing in bonds offers the benefit of consistent investment income. Bonds are debt instruments issued by governments and corporations that guarantee a set amount of interest each year. Investing in bonds is tantamount to making a loan in the amount of the bond to the issuing entity.
Over the past 40 years, bonds have averaged a 6.4% annual return—about 1.5 times the 4.1% return of cash. Bonds have also been consistent outperformers: In the 433 months from January 1986 to April 2022, bonds had a better 5-year return in all but 10 periods—a 98% success rate (Exhibit 4).
Cash – including high-yield savings accounts, short CDs – money market funds, and bond funds, are all perceived as relatively “safe” investments but differ in terms of their risk level and return potential. Cash is the least risky of the three but offers the lowest potential return.
Disadvantages of Corporate Bonds
If the issuer goes out of business, the investor may never get the promised interest payments or even get their principal back. Corporate bonds are generally considered riskier than government bonds because governments have the option of raising taxes to meet their obligations.
Expecting another strong year in 2024
Following large front-loaded new issue supply, EM IG spreads are now at attractive levels versus U.S. credit, setting up EM debt for outperformance. Our 2024 macroeconomic base case features slowing inflation and growth cushioned by Fed rate cuts.
But there's a reason you don't just keep bills in a safe: inflation, which gradually erodes the spending power of your dollar. That's why it's generally advisable to park your cash in a vehicle that maintains liquidity and safety, but also gives you a chance to keep up with inflation.
Bottom Line
Moving 401(k) assets into bonds could make sense if you're closer to retirement age or you're generally a more conservative investor overall. However, doing so could potentially cost you growth in your portfolio over time.
Bonds tend to carry greater risk than cash equivalents, including the risk that a bond's lender may be unable to make interest or principal payments on time.
Banks and credit unions can redeem savings bonds over the counter.
Are CDs better than Treasury bonds?
Choosing between a CD and Treasuries depends on how long of a term you want. For terms of one to six months, as well as 10 years, rates are close enough that Treasuries are the better pick. For terms of one to five years, CDs are currently paying more, and it's a large enough difference to give them the edge.
While Treasurys boast higher rates than CDs, you can still score a generous annual percentage yield (APY) on a CD by shopping around. Typically, online banks offer higher interest rates than brick-and-mortar ones. Some of the best CDs have APYs that top 5%.
CDs are savings accounts; bonds are loans where you're the lender. Spencer Tierney is a consumer banking writer at NerdWallet.
Default Risk
If the bond issuer defaults, the investor can lose part or all of the original investment and any interest that was owed. Credit rating services including Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch give credit ratings to bond issues.
All bonds carry some degree of "credit risk," or the risk that the bond issuer may default on one or more payments before the bond reaches maturity. In the event of a default, you may lose some or all of the income you were entitled to, and even some or all of principal amount invested.
Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions, and because interest rates in the past few years have been fluctuating in response to shifts in expectations for inflation and economic growth, prices have oscillated wildly, too.
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Stocks and bonds deliver positive returns and cash underperforms both as the Fed pivots to rate cuts. Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years.
It's a good idea to keep enough cash at home to cover two months' worth of basic necessities, some experts recommend. A locked, waterproof and fireproof safe can help protect your cash and other valuables from fire, flood or theft.
How much should I have in cash right now?
The role of cash and cash equivalents in your financial plan
Verhaalen often recommends clients maintain a cash reserve that's, at a minimum, the equivalent of six months of income.
While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Can you lose money investing in bonds? Yes, you can lose money investing in bonds if the bond issuer defaults on the loan or if you sell the bond for less than you bought it for. Are bonds safe if the market crashes? Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits.
The value of a 401(k) account, or any retirement account, always depends on how the account is invested. For many people who are still decades away from retirement, their portfolios will largely consist of stocks, which may suffer declines during a recession or economic slowdown.
So, if the bond market declines or crashes, your investment account will likely feel it in some way. This can be especially concerning for investors with portfolios heavily weighted toward bonds, such as those in or near retirement.
