Imagine a world where spinning records isn't just a nostalgic trip down memory lane—it's a booming trend that's here to stay. That's the exciting prediction from Karen Emanuel, the founder of Key Production Group, who sees vinyl enjoying steady growth in 2026. But here's where it gets controversial: Is this renaissance real, or just a fleeting fad fueled by superstars? Stick around, and let's dive into the details that might just challenge your views on music formats.
According to the latest BPI data, the vinyl market surged impressively in the third quarter, climbing 10.7% year-on-year to a total of 1,498,693 units sold. For those new to these terms, 'year-on-year' simply means comparing the current period's figures to the same time last year, giving us a clear picture of growth without seasonal mix-ups. Meanwhile, sales from the beginning of the year up to that point were up 7.4%, reaching 4,733,937 units. Among the top UK hits on the charts, fans snapped up albums like Sam Fender's People Watching, Wet Leg's Moisturizer, Pulp's More, and Wolf Alice's The Clearing—each one a testament to how diverse artists are keeping the format alive.
Earlier this year, reports highlighted a 50% jump in vinyl orders for Key Production in 2025, setting the stage for optimism. Emanuel shared with Music Week that she anticipates this positive momentum to roll into 2026. 'I foresee modest but consistent expansion,' she explained. 'The vinyl scene seemed to explode unnaturally during and right after the Covid era, so we're essentially recalibrating now. Would I fret if the numbers dipped temporarily? Not really, as a single year doesn't capture the full narrative. All signs, in my view, indicate ongoing progress.'
This Q3 rebound came after a slight stumble in the second quarter, where vinyl sales dropped 2.8% year-on-year, even though Record Store Day—a major event for music lovers—fell within that period. Yet, those dips led to an insightful opinion piece by Key's Neil Gibbons in Music Week, urging the industry to dig deeper than surface-level stats. And this is the part most people miss: Emanuel pushed back against talk of a 'vinyl wobble,' emphasizing the behind-the-scenes reality.
'It was fascinating,' she recalled. 'Those numbers dropped, and we just looked at each other thinking, 'That's not our experience.' Statistics can be misleading; you need to dissect them to uncover the truth. Right now, the truth is that all pressing facilities are operating at full capacity, and wait times are stretching longer. Sure, there might be quieter months with fewer releases causing temporary lulls, but overall, the outlook is bright. We've got an abundance of exciting projects in the pipeline. The plants are humming with activity, and I bet we'll feel the positive impact soon. Sometimes, you have to analyze data more thoroughly than just glancing at the headlines.'
When Emanuel accepted the 2024 Music Week Women In Music Award for Businesswoman Of The Year, she confidently stated that physical music formats are thriving and aren't going anywhere. As co-founder of the Moving The Needle charity, she noted that nothing in the last year has altered her stance. 'I observe younger generations embracing vinyl as fans and collectors, and it's generational now,' she said. 'Once it was mainly older folks, but it's trickling down, with two generations beneath us getting on board. Our studies on Gen Alpha show they're even starting to explore CDs and vinyl, often with parental encouragement to cut back on screen time—an extra perk for family bonding.'
Emanuel also praised how megastars like Taylor Swift are boosting the physical market. Swift's album The Life Of A Showgirl shattered records on vinyl, selling a whopping 125,592 copies in its debut week, outpacing her 2024 release The Tortured Poets Department, which shifted 66,388 units. This feat tops the Kantar (Millward Brown) chart history since 1994 and even eclipses the Gallup era from 1983 to 1994. Going further back, you'd need to look at ABBA's Super Trouper in 1980 or The Beatles' hits in the 1960s for comparable vinyl weeks, though those were influenced by pre-orders.
'It's wonderful when musicians openly express their passion for releasing music on tangible formats,' Emanuel remarked. 'Consider the Swifties—spanning toddlers to adults—eagerly purchasing her work because she's championing it. That inspiration spreads; once someone does it, people start eyeing other artists' collections. When a creator crafts an album, it's like weaving a tale, and true fans crave that deeper connection. Streaming has its merits—perfect for stumbling upon new tunes or playing a single hit repeatedly—but it doesn't convey the artist's intended story in the same immersive way.'
Meanwhile, CD sales tell a different story, falling 11% year-on-year in Q3, though that's an improvement from the 22.4% drop in Q2. For the year so far, the decline stands at 12.2%. But with The Life Of A Showgirl's launch week including 194,596 CDs alongside those vinyls and 2,652 cassettes, Emanuel believes CD has enduring appeal. 'Attempts to dismiss CDs have been ongoing, yet many catalog labels keep releasing them, and buyers keep coming,' she pointed out. 'Think of drivers with older cars that still have CD players, enjoying road trips with their favorites, or the convenience for gig-goers—CDs are compact and often more affordable than vinyl. Humans are collectors at heart; we love handling, feeling, and owning physical items. The dip is minor, not a total eclipse. I'm hopeful for a slight recovery, honestly.'
For the full chat with Karen Emanuel, subscribers can access the October issue of Music Week. And to stay in the loop with top-tier music industry news, features, and insights, subscribe to our daily Morning Briefing newsletter.
What do you think—will vinyl truly keep growing, or is it destined to fade as streaming dominates? Do superstar endorsements like Taylor Swift's really sustain the physical format, or are they just short-term boosts? Share your opinions in the comments; I'd love to hear if you agree or disagree!
