Three Blue Jays takeaways: Stiff test coming in June, fallout from Alek Manoah's surgery (2024)

The Toronto Blue Jays opened their series against the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night with a 3-1 loss to the NL Central leaders.

The game began with promise after Alejandro Kirk homered in the third inning to give the Blue Jays a brief early lead. But that would be all the offence the Blue Jays could generate, as Brewers starter Colin Rea held them to one run on three hits over seven innings with four strikeouts.

Rockets Engage 🚀 @alejandro_kirk pic.twitter.com/gANfU6afRj

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) June 11, 2024

The loss stings in particular for the Blue Jays because a win would have put them back at .500 for the first time in more than a month.

So, as the Blue Jays start a difficult stretch of their schedule in June, how do they stack up, and what does their rotation look like without Alek Manoah?

Results against tough June schedule will define Blue Jays’ contender status

The last time the Blue Jays had a .500 record was April 29. As mentioned, after their series win against the Oakland Athletics, the Jays had a chance to reach .500 once again had they beaten the Brewers on Monday night, but the loss moved their record back down to two games under, at 32-34.

Reaching .500 will have to wait until at least Wednesday, but let’s consider the Blue Jays’ recent run. They’ve won nine of their past 14 games, but seven wins came against teams like the Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates and A’s. In that time, the Blue Jays climbed out of last place in the American League East thanks in part to the Baltimore Orioles completing a four-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays (at the Trop, no less), dropping Tampa Bay into last place. The Blue Jays also moved to three games back of the final wild-card spot, with two teams ahead of them.

The Blue Jays have made strides in the past two weeks, beating the teams they should. But the upcoming part of the schedule will test whether the Blue Jays are contenders or pretenders this year. After the Brewers, they play the Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. By July 1, we should have a good idea of whether the Blue Jays will keep this team intact for a second-half run or be forced to consider selling assets at the deadline and retooling for next season.

Rotation rolls into form just as schedule toughens

The Blue Jays have plenty of flaws this season, but the rotation hasn’t been one of them. Yes, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt had uncharacteristically shaky starts, but they have looked better of late, with Bassitt pitching eight one-run innings and Gausman completing his first career shutout over the weekend — both starts were against the A’s, however.

Since May 11, the starting rotation has a combined 3.10 ERA, which ranks third in the American League, behind only the Yankees and Orioles. They’re the type of results that were commonplace last year and were expected this season.

Now, the caveat is that the Blue Jays faced some of Major League Baseball’s lighter competition during that span. Another consideration is that the Blue Jays now have a hole in their rotation after the news that Manoah will have season-ending surgery.

As mentioned, the rotation faces stiffer competition over the rest of the month, giving us a clearer picture of whether it can again lead the way for a Blue Jays team that simply isn’t able to generate much offence consistently, no matter how many times it shuffles and shakes up its lineup.

In the first test of this stretch, right-hander José Berríos allowed three runs against the Brewers on five hits over 5 2/3 innings with two walks and four strikeouts. Unfortunately, two of those hits were solo home runs — from Jackson Chourioand Willy Adames — and were enough offence to beat the Blue Jays.

Fallout from Manoah’s season-ending injury

Last week, the Blue Jays announced Manoah would need season-ending elbow surgery. The procedure is scheduled for June 17, and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported that Manoah will have the hybrid Tommy John surgery that replaces the ulnar collateral ligament and reinforces it with an internal brace. It will sideline Manoah well into next season.

This is the latest difficult development for Manoah, who has experienced a challenging year-plus. The right-hander had a career-worst season in 2023, when he was twice demoted to the minors. He put in the work physically and mentally over the offseason, and he showed flashes of his potential in his five starts, but injuries have derailed his season. It’s a disappointing way to end his 2024 campaign, but Manoah has shown he can respond positively to challenges the game presents him.

The injury creates a ripple effect for the team, too, in terms of filling the fifth-starter vacancy. Short-term, the Blue Jays have so far used Trevor Richards as an opener and Bowden Francis as a starter to fill that gap. But Toronto needs to find a more permanent solution, and Yariel Rodríguez is the leading internal candidate. He is scheduled to pitch again in Triple A this week as the team tries to build up his pitch count. Assuming it goes well, he could slide back into the MLB rotation. If the Blue Jays want to keep a watchful eye on his pitch count, Francis can be used as a bulk guy on his days.

Manoah’s injury also has a long-term impact on the roster. With Yusei Kikuchi scheduled for free agency, the Blue Jays are suddenly looking at having to replace two spots in their rotation to begin the 2025 season. They can add via free agency, with some of the pitchers available this offseason including Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Shane Bieber and, of course, Kikuchi, whom they could re-sign. Or they could look at filling one (or both) of those spots internally.

Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is a name that comes to mind, though he has missed most of this season with nerve inflammation and needs innings in the minors to ensure he’s ready for the majors. Another left-handed prospect, Adam Macko, is also an internal candidate. He’s had a strong season in Double-A New Hampshire, with a 3.60 ERA in 11 starts with 71 strikeouts in 55 innings pitched. He’s on the cusp of a call-up to Triple A and could be an arm to watch in 2025.

(Photo of José Berríos from his start in Milwaukee: Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)

Kaitlyn McGrath is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the Toronto Blue Jays. Previously, she worked at the National Post and CBC. Follow Kaitlyn on Twitter @kaitlyncmcgrath